Main Objectives

The main aim of the project is to develop, evaluate, and disseminate improved UAQIFS enhancing the capabilities to successfully describe and predict air pollution episodes in cities of different European regions through improvement and integration of systems for forecasting urban meteorology, air pollution, and population exposure based on modern information technologies.

The improvement of urban meteorological forecasts will also provide information to city management regarding additional hazardous or stressing urban climate (e.g. urban runoff and flooding, icing and snow accumulation, high urban winds or gusts, heat or cold stress in growing cities and/or a warming climate). All these factors will have implications on the quality of urban life, energy consumption and street maintenance programs. Moreover, the availability of reliable urban scale weather forecasts could be of relevant support for the emergency management of fires, accidental toxic emissions, potential terrorist actions etc.

The improved forecast techniques can be used in two ways: Firstly, short-term episode forecasts for the next few days. Secondly, as an integrated modelling system for long-term air quality management to predict future episodic pollution levels, taking into account estimated trends in local traffic and other emissions. In both cases the modelling system can be employed to evaluate alternative scenarios and to develop efficient strategies to reduce emissions, pollution levels, and population exposure (PE) to prevent health consequences in a cost-effective way.

The project will proceed through the steps given below, each of which can be considered as a separate objective providing valuable results:

1.CATALOGUING AIR POLLUTION EPISODES WITH A FOCUS ON RELEVANT METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES.

·         Identification and classification of various types of air pollution episodes in cities located in different European climatic and geographic regions.

·         Key pollutants relevant to EU Air Quality Directives and the Daughter Directives (EC/96/62; EC/99/30) will be selected for the investigation of different regions/city characteristics.

·         Classification of meteorological conditions leading to pollution episodes and identification of the more relevant meteorological parameters to define these conditions in various European climatic regions.

·         Compilation and critical analysis of existing datasets of concentration and meteorological data measured during air pollution episodes in different European climatic and geographic regions.

2. IMPROVEMENT OF THE QUALITY OF URBAN METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTING FOR URBAN AIR POLLUTION AND POPULATION EXPOSURE MODELS

·         Improvement of urban weather forecasts adapting NWP modelling systems to the urban scale and to the forecast of key meteorological parameters for pollution episodes. A hierarchy of NWP models from large scale Global Circulation Models to high resolution mesoscale (non-hydrostatic) models to local-scale obstacle-resolving meteorological models will be employed.

·         Improvement of boundary layer formulations/parameterisations and physiographic data description for urban areas.

·         Development of assimilation techniques to introduce satellite remote sense data in NWP models.

·         Development of interfaces to connect NWP to UAP models.

3. VERIFICATION OF THE IMPROVED NWP, UAP, AND PE MODELS

·         Evaluation of these improved urban meteorological forecast models based on urban air pollution episode data in 1.

·         Estimation of the sensitivity of UAP models to uncertainties in meteorological input data.

·         Evaluation of the impact of the improved output of the UAQ models on simulations of an urban population exposure (PE) model.

4. APPLICATION OF UAQIFS AND EMERGENCY SYSTEMS, DISSEMINATION

·         Integration of the improved NWP, UAP and PE models into UAQIFSs. Implementation of the new improved UAQIFS in air quality forecasting mode to be applied in four target cities, in urban management or public health and planning mode in one selected target city, and of the emergency preparedness system in one selected target city. The selection of  target cities will take into account different orographic, climatic, and pollution characteristics, as well as socio-economic and socio-cultural structures, characteristic of different parts of Europe.

·         Involvement of end users in the definition of the information required from the UAQIFS. Different location end-users will collaborate with modellers to define content and format of needed forecasts and warnings, and the strategy of data dissemination to decision-makers, authorities and to the public.

·         Demonstration of the new UAQIFS for selected episodes in each of the four selected target cities with the direct participation of local authorities and other end-users. Additionally, the improved high-resolution NWP forecasting will be implemented and demonstrated in an urban emergency preparedness system.

·         Demonstration of an UAQIFS enhanced with a built-in population exposure model.

·         Dissemination of the improved UAQIFS to other interested regional and local authorities, management bodies, or research institutions in Europe.